The First Independent Forecast
of China - US Travel Demand
On September 19, 2016, at the Boyd Group International Aviation Forecast Summit, the first comprehensive forecast of travel generated from China to the USA will be unveiled.
This is just the first in a planned series of Airports:China forecasts from Boyd Group International, and focuses on the potential effects of the burgeoning leisure traffic generated to the US as a result of China's emerging middle class.
The Airports:China, forecast will deal with the following
- The status of China-US air service currently and the new capacity expected over the next five years;
- The specific cities in China where new or more capacity can be supported to the US
- Key US airport destinational distribution for Chinese tourists. This will be based on a range of scenarios.
- The economic impact represented by this emerging segment. The mix of current expectations, venues visited, and per-visitor spend all will materially evolve as the market becomes more mature and more destination-sophisticated.
The Chinese Air Travel Market Is Staggering
Additional flights at Shanghai and Beijing are extremely problematic due to airport congestion. But the air service potential is enormous from other cities.
To give an idea of the scope of the China air market, here is a comparison of 2014 numbers for top Chinese airports and top US airports. The 2015 numbers in the forecast are even more impressive, as there has been massive passenger growth at several of these Chinese airports. Beijing, for example, is well over 90 million passengers.
The China-US demand is only now starting to be tapped with new US nonstop from Chengu, Xi'an, Hangzhou, Xiamen and Changsha. These new channels will be the harbinger of the explosion in China visitors to the US. Just as a comparison, Xi'an, which just started to enjoy US nonstop flight access, is the ninth largest passenger airport in China - but is larger than all but two US airports.
Forecast: Total Visitors From China To Expand By Over 500% In Next Ten Years
The Airports:China forecast projects that in the next ten years, Chinese visitation to the US will exceed 16 million people - from 2.6 million in 2015 to nearly 17 million in 2025.
The Destinational Spread Will Expand Rapidly - But It Will Be Culturally-Selective
The current make-up of Chinese visitation to the USA is based upon enormous curiosity regarding all of America.
As a result, places that may Americans may find mundane are high on the Chinese visitor list... such as Pennsylvania Amish Country, and Mount Rushmore. In the future higher percentages of this traffic will be air-connecting to secondary US airports to start their US trip.
Forecast: Chinese Visitors Will Become A Major Factor In US Tourism Economy
The Airports:China forecast from Boyd Group International indicates that by 2025, Chinese will represent over 6% of all foreign visitors to the USA. The "spend" per visitor, however, will be approximately 15% of the total inbound market.
For The Complete Forecast, Join Us At The International Aviation Forecast Summit
On September 19, the Summit will feature a set of China-related sessions that will deliver information and insight on this important emerging sector. Click above to register!